NFL Week 13

Props & Plays

Nov 30th, 2022

Kansas City @ Cincinnati

Game script: Home-Dogs in a great spot with Chase hopefully coming back. Shootout in same spot last year (65 Total), (Burrow 446, 4 TD). Perine is in line for a huge workload and same for Pacheco. Both have great chances to score with how shifty they are in the red zone.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Quarterbacks

Mahomes has won 5 in a row, 26 in a row in November and December, and is projected the highest point total on the week. Mahomes is averaging 326 YPG on the year and 356 YPG in the last 4 games. Chiefs sit at 11.9% passing rate over expectation (PROE) on the season and the closest second is Buffalo at 8.6%. Cincinnati sits at 3rd on the season at 6.3%. Both these teams want to put the ball in their best players hands and they let them contentiously push the ball down the field. PROE means that a team throws more than would be expected by an average team in a similar situation.

As mentioned above for Burrow, this could be a similar blow up spot. He'll look to win 2 in a row against Mahomes and company. Burrow is averaging 287 YPG on the year but 265 YPG in the last 4 games.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Receivers

JuJu would be the only receiver I could trust in this matchup without Hardman and most likely Toney. He has the gotten the targets to be productive and this matchups gives him every opportunity. He had a 12 target game Week 9 v. TEN in a similar projected type of game script where Kansas City was forced to throw early and often. JuJu is averaging 6 targets, 5 REC, & 65 YPG on the season but that includes weeks where he played limited snaps because of injury. One game further removed from his concussion, this is a great bounce back spot for him. JuJu is averaging 73 YPG in games this season where he has played over 50% of the snaps. Kelce is the other remaining receiving option for obvious reasons. Kelce has averaged 82 YPG with Mahomes in 72 career games and just caught his league leading 12th TD of '22 and 48th of his career from Mahomes. Kelce is averaging 9 targets, 6 REC, & 83 YPG on the season and 90 YPG in the last 4 games.

Tee Higgins has proven himself as a dominant number one target in the past and is averaging 73 YPG in games played with Ja'Marr Chase in his career. Higgins is averaging 7 targets, 5 REC, & 75 YPG on the season but that includes weeks where he played limited snaps because of injury. Higgins is averaging 88 YPG in games this season where he has played over 50% of the snaps and 93 in the past 4 games.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Running Backs

Pacheco took control of this backfield before CEH went down with injury and has proved to be way more explosive in a short amount of time. The 7th round rookie has hit his stride as of late and will look to build upon a strong past 4 weeks. Pacheco is averaging 86 YPG when given 10+ carries and is averaging 17+ in the past 3 weeks. I think Pacheco has a great chance to score this week after scoring for the 1st time last week since Week 1.

Jacksonville @ Detroit

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Quarterbacks

Goff has averaged 257 YPG & over 2 TD at home this season and gets a Jaguars defense that has been gashed through the air lately. He's averaging less than 200 yards through the air on the season so he's hard to trust. TLaw has been red hot the past few games and is in the middle of a breakout season. He's averaging 241 YPG on the year and 237 YPG in the last 4 games.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Receivers

St. Brown has been a star for this offense when active and healthy this season. St. Brown is averaging 9 targets, 6 REC, & 71 YPG on the season but that includes weeks where he played limited snaps because of injury. St. Brown is averaging 86 YPG in games this season where he has played over 50% of the snaps and 93 in the past 4 games. Kirk is averaging 8 targets, 5 REC, & 66 YPG on the season & 9 targets, 6 REC, & 67 YPG in the last 4. Zay Jones is averaging 8 targets, 6 REC, & 56 YPG on the season & 8 targets, 7 REC, & 70 YPG in the last 4.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Running Backs

Jamaal Williams is averaging 66 YPG on the season and in the last 4 games. He leads the league in TD so I'll be taking him to score again this weekend. He's averaging over 16 touches per game even with Swift active most the season.

Miami @ San Fran

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Quarterbacks

Tua has won 5 in a row and is averaging 306 YPG on the year and 317 YPG in the last 4 games. He was on pace for a career day last week but got rested at half time. Jimmy G has averaged 238 YPG on the year & 231 in the last 4.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Receivers

Hill is averaging 10 targets, 8 REC, & 112 YPG on the year and 9 targets, 7 REC, & 115 YPG in the last 4. Waddle is averaging 8 targets, 5 REC, & 87 YPG on the year and 8 targets, 5 REC, & 85 YPG in the last 4. Aiyuk is averaging 7 targets, 4 REC, & 59 YPG on the year and 6 targets, 5 REC, & 63 YPG in the last 4. (5 for 60 w/o Deebo in career). Kittle is averaging 6 targets, 4 REC, & 50 YPG on the year and 4 targets, 3 REC, & 42 YPG in the last 4. (5 for 72 w/o Deebo in career).

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Running Backs

Wilson has averaged 13 Att. & 70 YPG with Miami in 3 games. CMC has averaged 11 Att. & 48 YPG with San Fran in 5 games. He's also averaged 6 targets, 5 REC, & 40 YPG.

Chargers @ Raiders

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Quarterbacks

Carr is averaging 248 YPG on the year & 277 in the last 4. Herbert is averaging 273 YPG on the year & 248 in the last 4.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Receivers

Adams is averaging 11 targets, 6 REC, & 91 YPG on the year and 14 targets, 8 REC, & 122 YPG in the last 4. Palmer is averaging 7 targets, 5 REC, & 55 YPG on the year and 9 targets, 6 REC, & 78 YPG in the last 4. Allen is averaging 8 targets, 5 REC, & 72 YPG on the year.

Top plays from last 4 weeks: Running Backs

Ekeler has averaged 50 YPG & 9 targets, 7 REC, & 45 YPG on the year. He's also averaged 9 targets, 7 REC, & 35 YPG in the last 4.