2023 Sleeper: Amed Rosario
- Mar 20, 2023
- 2 min read
Updated: Mar 28, 2023
My 2023 sleeper at the shortstop position is Amed Rosario of the Cleveland Guardians. Rosario had an under-the-radar breakout season last year and continues to be undervalued in drafts. Rosario was the 12th ranked shortstop and 67th overall last year in roto format, yet is being drafted as the 19th off the board, following Jeremy Pena and Javier Baez. With shortstop being one of the deepest positions this year in drafts, you can afford to wait on late-round talent like Rosario.
Rosario found himself in the 2-hole for most of last season and projects to land in that spot again with a more potent lineup behind him. Since Rosario hits in front of the most well-rounded hitters in the game, such as Jose Ramirez and newly acquired Josh Bell, this will only force pitchers to attack within the strike zone.
Rosario can potentially be an elite power and speed threat at the top of a well-rounded lineup. He ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed last season per Statcast and has flashed stolen base upside. However, the problem has been his willingness to run; he was caught stealing ten times in 2019 (led MLB) and 11 in 2018. Since then, Rosario only has been caught stealing four times since landing in Cleveland. Fortunately, MLB introduced rule changes this offseason that will encourage players to run more often, including limiting pitchers to two pick-off attempts per plate appearance and increasing the size of the bases. After a trial run through Minor League Baseball, there was an uptick in steal attempts from 2.23 per game in 2019 to 2.83 per game with these same rule changes in effect.
ATC has Rosario at .278 AVG, 11 HR, 66 RBI, and 16 steals for the upcoming year, which aligns with his career averages. I am projecting him to push for a new career high in stolen bases this year with 25. He can also be a steady source of batting average with his 88th percentile xBA from the past two seasons, which sit at .282 and .283, per Statcast. Rosario also dropped his strikeout rate last year to a career-low of 16.6% but still struggled to remain patient at the plate, reflected in his poor walk and chase rate. His max exit velocity readings have demonstrated Rosario's raw power over his career. Since assuming his full-time role in Cleveland, he has produced 110+ mph max exit velocity events in both seasons, ranking in the 71st percentile last year, per Statcast. A slight launch angle tweak in his swing may decrease his overall ground ball rate and allow him to hit for more power.
A bonus to drafting Rosario is that he is eligible at outfield on Yahoo and Fantrax, a weak position this year. I will have him slotted around Brandon Nimmo and Nick Castellanos regarding outfield rankings. I will gladly take Rosario ahead of those two for more upside and playing time concerns.
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