2023 Shortstop Rankings & Standouts
- Feb 22, 2023
- 3 min read
Updated: Mar 1, 2023
February 15th, 2023
Draft Tiers
Trea Turner |
|
Bo Bichette |
Marcus Semien (2B) |
Corey Seager |
Francisco Lindor |
Fernando Tatis Jr. |
|
Bobby Witt Jr. (3B) |
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Oneil Cruz |
Xander Bogaerts |
Willy Adames |
Dansby Swanson |
Wander Franco |
Carlos Correa |
Andres Gimenez (2B) |
Tommy Edman (2B) |
Tim Anderson |
|
Amed Rosario |
Jeremy Pena |
Javier Baez |
Ezequiel Tovar |
CJ Abrams |
Corey Seager
Seager smashed his career high in home runs last year in his 1st year in Texas. He did this without having his best season at the plate. Seager's BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) was a career low .242, 60 points lower than his previous career worst. This, combined with the number of hits he lost to the now banned shift, his number should jump off the page in another full season in Texas.
Seager's average exit velocity remained in the 86th percentile last year, consistent with his career average. His xBA (.283) to BA (.245) was also one of the largest discrepancies from last year.
Seager raised his launch angle to 13.6% last year, the highest since 2019 when he hit 19 HRs. A mix of high exit velocity and launch angle leads to great chance to hit the ball out on a consistent basis. His flyball rate was 30.3, the highest of his career.
Seager's xwOBA & xSLG were 96th and 97th percentiles last year to go along with above average plate discipline. Seager's 2023 outlook looks similar with plus power and a huge projected jump in batting average. I believe Seager has a shot at a .300 AVG, 30 HR, 85 RBI season this year.
Oneil Cruz
The 24 year old phenom flashed upside throughout his rookie campaign but did not capitalize on as many opportunities as projected. His slow start in the majors can partially be credited to the Pirates franchise because they held him down in AAA until the 20th of June. Cruz told reporters this offseason that his goal is to "go 30/30 or 40/40" this upcoming season. Cruz's hit tool comes with raw power that is rare, even on an MLB level. Plus, his 98th percentile sprint speed could carry his output if his strikeout rate continues to be higher than league average. Finally, this is all to say that Cruz recorded the hardest hit ball in the stat cast era last year, a unique sight that we all hope to see more of this year.
Cruz's average exit velocity sits at the 91st percentile last year, but has shown in limited plate appearances that his max exit velocity is one of the best, if not THE best in baseball. The problem for Cruz is making contact and remaining consistant at the plate. His strikeout rate plummeted his batting average and made it difficult for Cruz to establish consistency as a rookie.
Cruz improved his launch angle last year from what we saw in limited at bats during the 2021 season. His fly ball rate was in line with league average and his ground ball rate was 49.5%; too high for a player with such natural power.
Regarding plate discipline, so much will be riding on Cruz's strikeout rate and L v. R splits this year. Cruz hit an abysmal .158 v. LHP last year and struck out 58% of the time. That is a stat line that even the Pirates can't handle so he ended up losing some playing time near the end of the year. If Cruz can minimally improve his plate discipline, we'll continue to see home runs hit out of PNC Park like this one.
Wander Franco
Injuries have limited the 22 year old to just 153 games in his first 2 seasons in the show. In that short span, Franco has shown elite plate discipline with a 9.6% strikeout last season (99th percentile). Franco's xBA was in the 96th percentile last season at .285, a consistent part of his game that should improve as he gains more experience. He also hit .313 with 4 HRs in April last year before dealing with injuries, he was on pace for a monster season.
Franco's max exit velocity was 112 last year, a step up from his rookie season. The problem was consistency when it came to hitting the ball hard for Franco as his average exit velocity was only 87, below league average. His balanced approach at the plate will hopefully lead to more chances this year to take advantage of pitches in the zone.
His ground ball rate mixed with a low launch angle has led to middling power numbers but this is hopefully just the beginning of a long career. If he can make a slight adjustment to his launch angle, the power should increase if he continues to hit the ball hard.
Wander Franco's fantasy impact will come from the batting average department with an above average steals pace. With slight adjustments in his swing he may be able to generate more power without compromising his elite plate discipline.
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